Late Week Heat, Thunderstorm Potential, and Tropics Update

From the Meteorologist in Charge, National Weather Service Atlanta/Peachtree City GA, provided by the Pickens County EMA.This Week/Weekend:

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the Lower MS Valley and with it will come some of the warmest temps we’ve seen since 2012. Combined with high dewpoint values, heat indexes across a good portion of GA will surpass 100 and at/above 105 across the southern half of GA. Obviously with that comes the potential for Heat Advisories that the 6 NWS offices in GA are discussing/collaborating on (with regards to timing and locations).

Storm potential (Thu-Sat): With the center of the high off to our west where suppression of storms will be greatest, we could see some (not as many as today) storms as the temps help to make the atmosphere very unstable each day. While computer models suggest very little/none in the way of storms, they also said no storms would be forecast today and we can see how that is turning out. If storms do develop Thu-Sat, they could become severe with damaging winds, small hail and excessive lighting (much like today/this evening).

Tropics: We are aware that long range models suggest something will happen with 96L (the tropical wave in the Atlantic) and that earlier runs were suggesting something in the Gulf. However, I caution all of you from jumping onto something too soon as long range models can and often do make huge swings in the overall pattern which then affects a potential system like this (such as the latest runs from this AM which are opposite last nights/yesterdays runs). Obviously something we have to watch over the coming days, but much too soon to know what will eventually result. Also, be mindful of the many posts on social media which may/may not be true regarding any potentials. Always check the original source.

Submitted by Meteorologist in Charge
National Weather Service Atlanta/Peachtree City GA

Max Heat index forecasts for the state for Thur, Fri, and Sat. These values may change as forecasts are updated with new information.